Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Poehling wins 53.0% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 50.8% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 84.5%
Defensive zone
Poehling 80.8%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 50.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Poehling
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Poehling
Stamkos
Last 5: Poehling 2-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Poehling
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
0
Poehling
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
1
Poehling
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
52.6% (622)
49.3% (670)
+3.3%
Power Play
58.3% (12)
53.7% (121)
+4.6%
Penalty Kill
39.8% (103)
33.3% (3)
+6.5%
On penalty kill, Poehling has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Poehling is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (232).
Poehling shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Poehling
Stamkos
Home
53.2% (393)
54.0% (400)
Away
48.3% (344)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Poehling
Stamkos
P1
50.9%
48.6%
P2
56.2%
54.5%
P3
46.1%
45.4%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.6%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
58.0%▲
48.5%
50.9%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 12:44 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 05:14 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 05:07 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 2 | 07:10 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:09 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |