Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Strome wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 45.2% vs Hertl 57.2% (-14.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 57.3%
Defensive zone
Strome 75.5%
Neutral zone
Strome 72.2%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 73.8%
73.8%
26.2%
Strome
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Strome
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Strome
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Strome
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (267)
58.1% (823)
-13.9%
Power Play
37.0% (27)
56.2% (265)
-19.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Strome is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (203).
Strome shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Strome
Hertl
Home
42.0% (157)
59.7% (561)
Away
45.4% (141)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Strome
Hertl
P1
40.0%
51.6%
P2
46.4%
63.8%
P3
44.0%
58.6%
OT
33.3%
28.6%
Final 5 min
48.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
43.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 14:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |