Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on defensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Strome wins 41.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 42.3% vs Hertl 55.4% (-14.2%)
H2H factor
Strome leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 91.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 67.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 81.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 77.5%
22.5%
77.5%
Strome
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Strome
Hertl
Last 10: Strome 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Strome
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Strome
5
1
Strome
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.2% (1,040)
54.1% (717)
-12.9%
Power Play
43.0% (151)
61.9% (210)
-18.9%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (35)
58.1% (31)
-6.7%
On power play, Hertl has a +18.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Strome is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (900).
Strome shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Strome
Hertl
Home
40.1% (581)
58.1% (492)
Away
43.1% (645)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Strome
Hertl
P1
41.4%
57.1%
P2
42.9%
54.0%
P3
40.5%
56.6%
OT
45.5%
66.7%
Final 5 min
40.1%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
41.7%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 11:39 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 02:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 13:11 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 17:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |