Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 20 meetings). Strome wins 45.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 44.6% vs Hertl 54.2% (-9.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 32-25 in 57 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 79.7%
Defensive zone
Strome 71.7%
Neutral zone
Strome 79.8%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 76.9%
76.9%
23.1%
Strome
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
32
(57 meetings)
25
32
Strome
Hertl
Last 10: Strome 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
11
12
Strome
Hertl
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
12
Strome
Hertl
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
8
Strome
Hertl
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (6,839)
53.8% (8,268)
-9.7%
Power Play
49.3% (854)
59.3% (1,975)
-10.0%
Penalty Kill
41.5% (410)
46.3% (806)
-4.8%
On power play, Hertl has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Strome is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,726).
Strome shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Strome
Hertl
Home
44.4% (4,046)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
44.7% (4,057)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Strome
Hertl
P1
44.0%
53.6%
P2
45.3%
54.1%
P3
44.3%
55.3%
OT
46.3%
46.5%
Final 5 min
44.5%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
44.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 14:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 22, 2025 | 2 | 09:45 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 06:19 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 11:39 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 3 | 02:10 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 4, 2024 | 2 | 13:11 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 3 | 03:49 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 17:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 11:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 10:57 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 06:56 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Oct 13, 2024 | 2 | 01:03 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Apr 18, 2024 | 2 | 12:45 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:15 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 06:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 13:20 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 06:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |