Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Strome wins 43.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 44.4% vs Hertl 54.5% (-11.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 14-6 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 87.6%
Defensive zone
Strome 82.1%
Neutral zone
Strome 80.6%
Result
Ryan Strome favored at 84.0%
84.0%
16.0%
Strome
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
14
(20 meetings)
6
14
Strome
Hertl
Last 10: Strome 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
6
Strome
Hertl
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
6
Strome
Hertl
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Strome
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (788)
54.1% (1,117)
-11.1%
Power Play
47.9% (96)
59.8% (296)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (34)
34.4% (32)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Strome is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (685).
Strome shoots right. Hertl is 61.2% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Strome
Hertl
Home
42.6% (486)
54.3% (709)
Away
45.1% (432)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Strome
Hertl
P1
41.0%
51.6%
P2
47.8%
53.6%
P3
42.1%
58.6%
OT
50.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
42.7%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
42.0%▼
44.0%
43.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 13:20 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 12:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 1 | 06:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 13:44 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 2 | 02:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 01:40 | Offensive | Ryan Strome |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 06:34 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 03:09 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 11:01 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 06:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 05:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 13:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 1 | 09:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 16:50 | Defensive | Ryan Strome |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 14:25 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 08:21 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 08:09 | Neutral | Ryan Strome |