Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Carrick wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.0% vs Kuraly 48.4% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 70.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 69.0%
Neutral zone
Carrick 68.7%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 68.9%
68.9%
31.1%
Carrick
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Carrick
Kuraly
Last 8: Carrick 5-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Carrick
Kuraly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
5
2
Carrick
Kuraly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (521)
49.4% (445)
+4.5%
Power Play
57.1% (35)
100.0% (3)
-42.9%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (229)
41.9% (117)
+9.6%
On power play, Kuraly has a +42.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Carrick shoots right. Kuraly is 42.2% vs right-shot opponents (211).
Home / Away
Carrick
Kuraly
Home
52.7% (408)
49.2% (248)
Away
54.1% (377)
47.3% (317)
By Period
Carrick
Kuraly
P1
51.4%
48.3%
P2
56.6%
44.7%
P3
52.1%
51.7%
Final 5 min
57.7%
41.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 05:50 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 19:27 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 07:39 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 02:52 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 02:49 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:52 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |