Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Carrick wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.8% vs Kuraly 50.1% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 58.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 58.8%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 57.8%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 58.8%
41.2%
58.8%
Carrick
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Carrick
Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
Carrick
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (439)
51.8% (444)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
49.1% (53)
45.3% (150)
+3.8%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Carrick shoots right. Kuraly is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Home / Away
Carrick
Kuraly
Home
58.2% (225)
54.6% (304)
Away
51.5% (270)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Carrick
Kuraly
P1
56.7%
55.2%
P2
52.8%
45.7%
P3
54.4%
49.5%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |