Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 52.1% vs Kuraly 50.3% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 15-11 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Carrick 71.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 50.2%
Neutral zone
Carrick 56.9%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 58.1%
58.1%
41.9%
Carrick
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
11
(26 meetings)
15
11
Carrick
Kuraly
Last 10: Carrick 5-5 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Carrick
Kuraly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
4
4
Carrick
Kuraly
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
8
4
Carrick
Kuraly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
52.1% (2,513)
51.5% (5,141)
+0.6%
Power Play
61.3% (75)
56.0% (100)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (430)
44.2% (1,086)
+6.5%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Carrick shoots right. Kuraly is 45.9% vs right-shot opponents (2,226).
Home / Away
Carrick
Kuraly
Home
51.2% (1,441)
51.9% (3,187)
Away
53.0% (1,577)
48.7% (3,141)
By Period
Carrick
Kuraly
P1
51.8%
51.1%
P2
52.2%
49.9%
P3
52.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.6%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 1 | 03:03 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 08:48 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:52 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:04 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:13 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:43 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 02:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 02:35 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 02:32 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 19:40 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 05:50 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 19:27 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 3 | 07:39 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 06:44 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 02:52 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 02:49 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:52 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 16:09 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |