Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.2% vs 54.3%). Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Carrick wins 56.5% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.7% vs Kuraly 53.7% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 61.9%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 52.9%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 50.6%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 55.4%
44.6%
55.4%
Carrick
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Carrick
Kuraly
Last 9: Carrick 6-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
1
Carrick
Kuraly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
3
1
Carrick
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Carrick
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (654)
55.3% (515)
-1.5%
Power Play
0.0% (2)
55.6% (9)
-55.6%
Penalty Kill
63.9% (36)
44.8% (58)
+19.1%
On power play, Kuraly has a +55.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Carrick is 56.5% vs left-shot opponents (503).
Carrick shoots right. Kuraly is 47.7% vs right-shot opponents (195).
Home / Away
Carrick
Kuraly
Home
50.0% (328)
57.3% (293)
Away
58.0% (364)
51.2% (289)
By Period
Carrick
Kuraly
P1
56.7%
53.8%
P2
51.1%
51.5%
P3
54.8%
57.6%
Final 5 min
48.8%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.2%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 18:52 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 15:48 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:04 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 9, 2025 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:13 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 14:43 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 3 | 02:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 02:35 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 02:32 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |