Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Karlsson on offensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings). Carrick wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 53.0% vs Karlsson 55.6% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Karlsson leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Karlsson 64.9%
Defensive zone
Carrick 85.5%
Neutral zone
Carrick 60.3%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 59.8%
40.2%
59.8%
Carrick
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Carrick
Karlsson
Last 10: Carrick 3-7 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Karlsson
1
7
Carrick
Karlsson
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
0
Carrick
Karlsson
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (521)
56.3% (739)
-2.4%
Power Play
57.1% (35)
58.6% (181)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
51.5% (229)
47.2% (53)
+4.3%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Carrick shoots right. Karlsson is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (346).
Home / Away
Carrick
Karlsson
Home
52.7% (408)
56.5% (462)
Away
54.1% (377)
56.0% (511)
By Period
Carrick
Karlsson
P1
51.4%
57.1%
P2
56.6%
55.2%
P3
52.1%
56.7%
Final 5 min
57.7%
54.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
56.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 10:20 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 10:16 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 2 | 17:59 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 14:09 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 19:55 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 11:33 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 01:07 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Nov 5, 2023 | 3 | 18:01 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 5, 2023 | 3 | 16:20 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 5, 2023 | 3 | 12:21 | Offensive | William Karlsson |