Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +8.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lafferty wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 47.6% vs Zegras 39.2% (+8.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 66.6%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 93.1%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 72.9%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 64.5%
64.5%
35.5%
Lafferty
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Lafferty
Zegras
Last 7: Lafferty 4-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
2
Lafferty
Zegras
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
0
Lafferty
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
3
1
Lafferty
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
48.0% (1,413)
38.6% (1,669)
+9.4%
Power Play
45.7% (46)
38.5% (148)
+7.2%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (184)
28.6% (7)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Lafferty has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Lafferty is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,248).
Lafferty shoots right. Zegras is 37.8% vs right-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Zegras
Home
47.3% (833)
39.9% (882)
Away
47.5% (810)
37.4% (942)
By Period
Lafferty
Zegras
P1
49.4%
40.2%
P2
43.1%
38.0%
P3
49.8%
37.7%
OT
60.0%
31.6%
Final 5 min
45.5%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Zegras
16.0%▼
26.5%
38.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 13:06 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:40 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 05:34 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |