Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +7.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Lafferty wins 46.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lafferty 47.5% vs Zegras 40.2% (+7.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 73.3%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 91.0%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 66.9%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 58.9%
58.9%
41.1%
Lafferty
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Lafferty
Zegras
Last 7: Lafferty 4-3 Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
2
Lafferty
Zegras
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
0
Lafferty
Zegras
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
3
1
Lafferty
Zegras
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lafferty
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (1,393)
39.5% (1,582)
+8.4%
Power Play
45.7% (46)
41.4% (133)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (184)
28.6% (7)
+14.9%
On penalty kill, Lafferty has a +14.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. Lafferty is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,234).
Lafferty shoots right. Zegras is 39.1% vs right-shot opponents (552).
Home / Away
Lafferty
Zegras
Home
47.0% (825)
40.6% (833)
Away
47.6% (798)
38.7% (889)
By Period
Lafferty
Zegras
P1
49.3%
41.2%
P2
43.1%
39.1%
P3
49.6%
38.5%
OT
60.0%
35.3%
Final 5 min
45.8%
40.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lafferty
48.0%▼
50.0%
47.3%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
39.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2022 | 2 | 13:37 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 13:06 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Mar 23, 2022 | 1 | 13:40 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 15, 2022 | 3 | 05:34 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |