Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Reinhart 46.8% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Reinhart leads 10-3 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Reinhart 74.6%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 69.7%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 74.6%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Nelson
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
10
(13 meetings)
3
10
Nelson
Reinhart
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Reinhart
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
1
2
Nelson
Reinhart
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
6
Nelson
Reinhart
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
44.4% (234)
+4.1%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
55.3% (38)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
25.0% (4)
+32.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +32.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Nelson is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Nelson shoots left. Reinhart is 42.8% vs left-shot opponents (152).
Home / Away
Nelson
Reinhart
Home
55.0% (362)
44.9% (158)
Away
43.5% (345)
46.6% (118)
By Period
Nelson
Reinhart
P1
49.3%
43.0%
P2
53.6%
46.7%
P3
46.0%
46.3%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 19:08 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 18:53 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 18:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 15:56 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 11:25 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 08:45 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 3 | 08:19 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 08:30 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 3, 2021 | 2 | 00:35 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 11:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 08:41 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| May 3, 2021 | 1 | 05:26 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 6, 2021 | 1 | 00:33 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |