Scouting Report
Connor McDavid holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for McDavid on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McDavid 47.9% vs Reinhart 42.7% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McDavid 84.2%
Defensive zone
McDavid 60.9%
Neutral zone
McDavid 59.8%
Result
Connor McDavid favored at 81.3%
81.3%
18.7%
McDavid
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
McDavid
Reinhart
Last 8: McDavid 5-3 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McDavid
5
2
McDavid
Reinhart
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
1
McDavid
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McDavid
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
47.7% (715)
44.1% (324)
+3.6%
Power Play
51.9% (52)
40.3% (72)
+11.6%
Penalty Kill
22.2% (9)
33.9% (118)
-11.7%
On penalty kill, Reinhart has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. McDavid is 50.7% vs right-shot opponents (282).
McDavid shoots left. Reinhart is 38.1% vs left-shot opponents (423).
Home / Away
McDavid
Reinhart
Home
47.3% (387)
40.5% (232)
Away
48.1% (389)
41.8% (282)
By Period
McDavid
Reinhart
P1
47.6%
46.4%
P2
50.0%
32.6%
P3
45.0%
45.4%
Final 5 min
46.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McDavid
50.0%▬
50.0%
47.7%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
41.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 05:48 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:06 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 18:42 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:16 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 11:46 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 2 | 03:27 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |
| Dec 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:40 | Offensive | Connor McDavid |