Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Dowd wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowd 55.5% vs Reinhart 46.8% (+10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Reinhart 92.3%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 65.4%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 82.3%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 87.1%
12.9%
87.1%
Dowd
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Dowd
Reinhart
Last 9: Dowd 2-7 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
6
Dowd
Reinhart
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
0
Dowd
Reinhart
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Dowd
Reinhart
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowd
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
58.2% (617)
44.4% (234)
+13.8%
Power Play
71.4% (7)
55.3% (38)
+16.1%
Penalty Kill
47.2% (144)
25.0% (4)
+22.2%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Dowd is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (381).
Dowd shoots right. Reinhart is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Home / Away
Dowd
Reinhart
Home
58.4% (399)
44.9% (158)
Away
53.9% (369)
46.6% (118)
By Period
Dowd
Reinhart
P1
59.0%
43.0%
P2
56.1%
46.7%
P3
54.6%
46.3%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
53.5%
40.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
56.3%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
45.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2021 | 2 | 19:02 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 15, 2021 | 2 | 18:53 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 14:03 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 03:15 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 3 | 12:48 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Mar 15, 2021 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Jan 15, 2021 | 2 | 10:09 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |