Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Reinhart on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.4% vs Reinhart 50.5% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Reinhart 77.9%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 65.0%
Neutral zone
Reinhart 68.6%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 72.1%
27.9%
72.1%
Paul
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Paul
Reinhart
Last 6: Paul 1-5 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
1
2
Paul
Reinhart
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
2
Paul
Reinhart
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Reinhart
0
1
Paul
Reinhart
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (753)
49.4% (259)
+4.4%
Power Play
58.9% (90)
54.4% (136)
+4.5%
Penalty Kill
47.4% (78)
47.9% (71)
-0.5%
On power play, Paul has a +4.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Paul is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (342).
Paul shoots left. Reinhart is 48.2% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Paul
Reinhart
Home
54.2% (450)
54.9% (235)
Away
53.3% (471)
46.3% (231)
By Period
Paul
Reinhart
P1
58.2%
52.3%
P2
50.6%
50.0%
P3
52.9%
50.0%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
49.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 17:23 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 3 | 03:48 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 09:34 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Feb 28, 2023 | 1 | 02:35 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 21, 2022 | 2 | 11:41 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |