Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.7% FO% edge overall. Reinhart wins 38.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Reinhart 42.7% vs Hertl 55.4% (-14.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 84.7%
Defensive zone
Reinhart 69.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.1%
Result
Sam Reinhart favored at 51.3%
51.3%
48.7%
Reinhart
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Reinhart
Hertl
Last 6: Reinhart 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Reinhart
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Reinhart
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Reinhart
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
44.1% (324)
54.1% (717)
-10.0%
Power Play
40.3% (72)
61.9% (210)
-21.6%
Penalty Kill
33.9% (118)
58.1% (31)
-24.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +24.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Reinhart is 38.1% vs left-shot opponents (423).
Reinhart shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Reinhart
Hertl
Home
40.5% (232)
58.1% (492)
Away
41.8% (282)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Reinhart
Hertl
P1
46.4%
57.1%
P2
32.6%
54.0%
P3
45.4%
56.6%
OT
40.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
44.0%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
41.2%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | 3 | 18:45 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 3 | 15:26 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 19, 2024 | OT | 03:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 15:24 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:38 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |