Scouting Report
Sam Steel holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Steel 50.2% (-1.8%)
H2H factor
Roy leads 20-11 in 31 meetings
Offensive zone
Steel 75.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 52.2%
Neutral zone
Steel 60.9%
Result
Sam Steel favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Roy
Steel
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
11
(31 meetings)
20
11
Roy
Steel
Last 10: Roy 7-3 Steel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
6
5
Roy
Steel
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
8
2
Roy
Steel
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
6
4
Roy
Steel
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
50.6% (2,876)
-1.9%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
62.6% (179)
-13.1%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
37.4% (254)
+8.1%
On power play, Steel has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Steel is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (1,237).
Home / Away
Roy
Steel
Home
49.5% (2,221)
50.0% (1,560)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
50.4% (1,749)
By Period
Roy
Steel
P1
50.8%
51.9%
P2
46.3%
49.5%
P3
48.1%
49.6%
OT
50.0%
41.9%
Final 5 min
47.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 1 | 15:51 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 3 | 01:51 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 05:52 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 05:49 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 1 | 18:14 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 3 | 01:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 1 | 15:14 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Apr 3, 2023 | 1 | 12:19 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 00:43 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 10:47 | Neutral | Sam Steel |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 2 | 03:23 | Offensive | Sam Steel |
| Dec 31, 2021 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 17:49 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 1 | 01:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 18, 2021 | 3 | 10:59 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 18, 2021 | 3 | 07:23 | Offensive | Sam Steel |