Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (56.1% vs 55.9%). Couturier wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Couturier 55.6% vs Hertl 55.4% (+0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 61.0%
Defensive zone
Couturier 66.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 61.0%
39.0%
61.0%
Couturier
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Couturier
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Couturier
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Couturier
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (1,008)
54.1% (717)
+1.0%
Power Play
64.1% (142)
61.9% (210)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (45)
58.1% (31)
-4.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +4.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Couturier is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (790).
Couturier shoots left. Hertl is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (596).
Home / Away
Couturier
Hertl
Home
58.1% (609)
58.1% (492)
Away
53.9% (586)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Couturier
Hertl
P1
55.3%
57.1%
P2
55.8%
54.0%
P3
57.4%
56.6%
OT
45.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
56.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2024 | 3 | 09:48 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 19:29 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |