Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 9 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Couturier 53.2% vs Hertl 57.2% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Couturier leads 12-10 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 84.4%
Defensive zone
Couturier 78.7%
Neutral zone
Hertl 61.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 58.2%
41.8%
58.2%
Couturier
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
10
(22 meetings)
12
10
Couturier
Hertl
Last 10: Couturier 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
7
Couturier
Hertl
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
6
1
Couturier
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
4
2
Couturier
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Couturier
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (758)
58.1% (823)
-4.7%
Power Play
62.9% (70)
56.2% (265)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
50.7% (227)
62.9% (35)
-12.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Couturier is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (680).
Couturier shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Couturier
Hertl
Home
50.7% (517)
59.7% (561)
Away
56.1% (538)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Couturier
Hertl
P1
55.2%
51.6%
P2
53.0%
63.8%
P3
53.3%
58.6%
OT
42.4%
28.6%
Final 5 min
55.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
53.5%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 19:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 13:29 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 12:29 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 18:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 10:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:06 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |