Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 26 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Couturier 52.6% vs Hertl 54.2% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 35-31 in 66 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 56.0%
Defensive zone
Couturier 68.8%
Neutral zone
Couturier 54.1%
Result
Sean Couturier favored at 54.1%
54.1%
45.9%
Couturier
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
35
(66 meetings)
31
35
Couturier
Hertl
Last 10: Couturier 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
8
18
Couturier
Hertl
26 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Couturier
11
7
Couturier
Hertl
18 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Couturier
12
10
Couturier
Hertl
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Couturier
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (11,063)
53.8% (8,268)
-1.3%
Power Play
59.7% (1,280)
59.3% (1,975)
+0.4%
Penalty Kill
48.5% (1,816)
46.3% (806)
+2.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Couturier is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (8,920).
Couturier shoots left. Hertl is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,916).
Home / Away
Couturier
Hertl
Home
53.4% (7,147)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
51.8% (7,019)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Couturier
Hertl
P1
52.5%
53.6%
P2
52.6%
54.1%
P3
52.9%
55.3%
OT
49.4%
46.5%
Final 5 min
53.1%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Couturier
52.0%▬
51.0%
52.6%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 19:37 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 18:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 13:29 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 06:09 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 18:03 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 12:29 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 19:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 18:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 10:28 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 19:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 08:00 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 04:45 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Sean Couturier |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:06 | Offensive | Sean Couturier |