Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 9 meetings). MacKinnon wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 51.3% vs Kuraly 50.1% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 10-4 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 77.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 84.6%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 58.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
4
(14 meetings)
10
4
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Last 10: MacKinnon 7-3 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
0
MacKinnon
Kuraly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
4
MacKinnon
Kuraly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (992)
51.8% (444)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
34.4% (32)
45.3% (150)
-10.9%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kuraly is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (226).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Home
53.3% (591)
54.6% (304)
Away
49.6% (581)
45.5% (290)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kuraly
P1
49.9%
55.2%
P2
53.2%
45.7%
P3
50.8%
49.5%
OT
66.7%
0.0%
Final 5 min
56.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 04:52 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 08:38 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:10 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 12:30 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:22 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 09:17 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 18:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 11:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 06:33 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:11 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 09:33 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |