Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +10.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). MacKinnon wins 42.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.2% vs Kuraly 53.2% (-10.2%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 8-4 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Kuraly 61.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 94.9%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 89.9%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 84.0%
16.0%
84.0%
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
4
(12 meetings)
8
4
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Last 10: MacKinnon 6-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
MacKinnon
Kuraly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
MacKinnon
Kuraly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
0
MacKinnon
Kuraly
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (1,039)
54.5% (464)
-11.7%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
0.0% (1)
+50.8%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (26)
50.0% (66)
-3.8%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +50.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. MacKinnon is 42.2% vs left-shot opponents (889).
MacKinnon shoots right. Kuraly is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (189).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Kuraly
Home
48.0% (586)
52.3% (281)
Away
39.5% (597)
55.6% (250)
By Period
MacKinnon
Kuraly
P1
46.1%
56.0%
P2
41.5%
60.8%
P3
43.8%
44.3%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.1%
57.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.7%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2019 | 3 | 06:57 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 3 | 06:37 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 3 | 04:37 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 2 | 14:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 2 | 11:20 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 10, 2019 | 2 | 05:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 2 | 19:49 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 1 | 19:20 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 1 | 16:43 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 14, 2018 | 1 | 12:19 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |