Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Paul wins 54.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 53.6% vs Kuraly 50.1% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 90.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 59.2%
Neutral zone
Paul 57.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 82.8%
82.8%
17.2%
Paul
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Paul
Kuraly
Last 9: Paul 8-1 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
7
0
Paul
Kuraly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Paul
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (318)
51.8% (444)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (32)
45.3% (150)
+4.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +4.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (297).
Paul shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Home / Away
Paul
Kuraly
Home
54.6% (183)
54.6% (304)
Away
54.5% (224)
45.5% (290)
By Period
Paul
Kuraly
P1
57.0%
55.2%
P2
56.2%
45.7%
P3
51.7%
49.5%
OT
44.4%
0.0%
Final 5 min
60.0%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
58.0%▲
54.0%
54.5%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | OT | 04:35 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | OT | 00:18 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 15:34 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 15:10 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 15:04 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 14:16 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 11:01 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 2 | 10:28 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 13:38 | Offensive | Nick Paul |