Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Kuraly wins 57.6% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 53.7% vs Aho 54.9% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 81.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 81.1%
Neutral zone
Aho 53.6%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Kuraly
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Kuraly
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Kuraly
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Kuraly
Aho
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (515)
54.5% (870)
+0.8%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
62.4% (266)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
44.8% (58)
37.1% (62)
+7.7%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kuraly is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Kuraly shoots left. Aho is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (805).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Aho
Home
57.3% (293)
53.9% (603)
Away
51.2% (289)
56.8% (595)
By Period
Kuraly
Aho
P1
53.8%
54.1%
P2
51.5%
55.0%
P3
57.6%
57.4%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.1%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
54.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 15:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 17:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |