Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.3% vs Aho 51.2% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 30-13 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 85.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 73.2%
Neutral zone
Aho 53.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 63.7%
36.3%
63.7%
Kuraly
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
30
(43 meetings)
13
30
Kuraly
Aho
Last 10: Kuraly 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
23
Kuraly
Aho
23 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
10
1
Kuraly
Aho
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
3
6
Kuraly
Aho
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (5,141)
50.1% (6,619)
+1.4%
Power Play
56.0% (100)
58.9% (1,310)
-2.9%
Penalty Kill
44.2% (1,086)
46.3% (464)
-2.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,102).
Kuraly shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Aho
Home
51.9% (3,187)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
48.7% (3,141)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Kuraly
Aho
P1
51.1%
51.1%
P2
49.9%
52.0%
P3
50.0%
50.7%
OT
52.3%
48.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 15:13 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 17:27 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 7, 2024 | 3 | 07:26 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 3 | 16:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 26, 2023 | 3 | 14:51 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 01:36 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 10:39 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 10:32 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:18 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 16:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 15:16 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 2 | 11:04 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 03:10 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 7, 2023 | 1 | 01:14 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 3 | 07:11 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:05 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:03 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |