Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Kuraly wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 49.2% vs Aho 50.4% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 80.0%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 83.4%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 50.4%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Kuraly
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Kuraly
Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Kuraly
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
0
Kuraly
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (370)
50.5% (647)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (127)
38.1% (42)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Kuraly is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Kuraly shoots left. Aho is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (531).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Aho
Home
52.8% (269)
53.9% (445)
Away
44.7% (228)
46.4% (375)
By Period
Kuraly
Aho
P1
53.2%
48.7%
P2
45.8%
51.4%
P3
47.9%
50.8%
Final 5 min
48.0%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
49.1%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 17, 2025 | 3 | 11:03 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |