Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 48.4% vs Novak 43.5% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 91.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 57.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 74.8%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 75.1%
24.9%
75.1%
Kuraly
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Kuraly
Novak
Last 5: Kuraly 1-4 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Kuraly
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Kuraly
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Kuraly
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (445)
40.7% (460)
+8.7%
Power Play
100.0% (3)
61.5% (39)
+38.5%
Penalty Kill
41.9% (117)
0.0% (1)
+41.9%
On penalty kill, Kuraly has a +41.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kuraly is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (354).
Kuraly shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Novak
Home
49.2% (248)
47.0% (236)
Away
47.3% (317)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Kuraly
Novak
P1
48.3%
43.1%
P2
44.7%
43.1%
P3
51.7%
40.1%
Final 5 min
41.7%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
48.1%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 17:05 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Apr 13, 2024 | 2 | 02:36 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 12:24 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 05:41 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 9, 2024 | 2 | 05:36 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |