Scouting Report
Sean Kuraly holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Kuraly wins 53.5% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 50.1% vs Novak 43.4% (+8.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 87.8%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 77.6%
Neutral zone
Novak 57.9%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 57.9%
42.1%
57.9%
Kuraly
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Kuraly
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Kuraly
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.8% (444)
41.4% (379)
+10.4%
On even strength, Kuraly has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Kuraly is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (368).
Kuraly shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Novak
Home
54.6% (304)
42.6% (195)
Away
45.5% (290)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Kuraly
Novak
P1
55.2%
42.4%
P2
45.7%
39.2%
P3
49.5%
44.7%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
50.2%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 08:47 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |