Scouting Report
William Karlsson holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Kuraly wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — Karlsson shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kuraly 49.2% vs Karlsson 54.7% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Karlsson 82.1%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 57.1%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 50.2%
Result
William Karlsson favored at 74.3%
25.7%
74.3%
Kuraly
Karlsson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Kuraly
Karlsson
Last 5: Kuraly 3-2 Karlsson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Kuraly
Karlsson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
0
Kuraly
Karlsson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kuraly
Karlsson
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (370)
58.5% (135)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (127)
44.4% (18)
-0.3%
On even strength, Karlsson has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Karlsson shoots left. Kuraly is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (303).
Kuraly shoots left. Karlsson is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (120).
Home / Away
Kuraly
Karlsson
Home
52.8% (269)
63.7% (91)
Away
44.7% (228)
49.3% (67)
By Period
Kuraly
Karlsson
P1
53.2%
54.4%
P2
45.8%
66.7%
P3
47.9%
51.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
54.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
49.1%
Karlsson
64.0%▲
57.5%
57.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:27 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 13:15 | Offensive | William Karlsson |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:15 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 06:28 | Offensive | William Karlsson |