Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +14.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Mercer wins 36.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Mercer 41.8% vs Monahan 52.8% (-14.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Mercer 69.7%
Defensive zone
Mercer 59.4%
Neutral zone
Mercer 67.7%
Result
Dawson Mercer favored at 66.3%
66.3%
33.7%
Mercer
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Mercer
Monahan
Last 6: Mercer 2-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Mercer
Monahan
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
3
Mercer
Monahan
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Mercer
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
38.8% (263)
53.2% (823)
-14.4%
Power Play
35.3% (17)
55.3% (159)
-20.0%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
48.4% (95)
+1.6%
On power play, Monahan has a +20.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Mercer is 36.3% vs left-shot opponents (190).
Mercer shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Mercer
Monahan
Home
34.7% (144)
54.6% (529)
Away
43.2% (146)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Mercer
Monahan
P1
32.7%
49.0%
P2
42.7%
55.4%
P3
42.2%
53.6%
Final 5 min
39.2%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Mercer
34.0%▼
36.5%
39.0%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1, 2025 | 3 | 07:14 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 12:36 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 1, 2025 | 1 | 02:41 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dawson Mercer |