Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). O'Reilly wins 60.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 57.6% vs Monahan 51.4% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 65.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 95.4%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 79.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 95.4%
95.4%
4.6%
O'Reilly
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
0
(6 meetings)
6
0
O'Reilly
Monahan
Last 6: O'Reilly 6-0 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
6
0
O'Reilly
Monahan
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
57.9% (1,179)
50.2% (1,117)
+7.7%
Power Play
63.0% (292)
55.5% (283)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
53.8% (320)
56.8% (44)
-3.0%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. O'Reilly is 60.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,095).
O'Reilly shoots left. Monahan is 51.1% vs left-shot opponents (928).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Monahan
Home
61.3% (884)
50.1% (731)
Away
54.8% (907)
52.9% (713)
By Period
O'Reilly
Monahan
P1
55.5%
51.3%
P2
61.0%
50.3%
P3
56.8%
53.1%
OT
67.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
55.6%
53.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
58.0%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2016 | OT | 02:10 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 3 | 13:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2 | 19:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 2 | 04:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 1 | 18:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 18, 2016 | 1 | 11:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |