Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Monahan wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.8% vs Aho 50.0% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 63.9%
Defensive zone
Monahan 58.6%
Neutral zone
Aho 52.2%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Monahan
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
7
(13 meetings)
6
7
Monahan
Aho
Last 10: Monahan 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
5
Monahan
Aho
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Aho
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
2
Monahan
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (823)
49.9% (851)
+3.3%
Power Play
55.3% (159)
53.5% (144)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (95)
43.3% (60)
+5.1%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +5.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Monahan shoots left. Aho is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Home / Away
Monahan
Aho
Home
54.6% (529)
53.2% (554)
Away
51.6% (548)
46.5% (501)
By Period
Monahan
Aho
P1
49.0%
49.1%
P2
55.4%
50.8%
P3
53.6%
49.7%
OT
61.9%
58.8%
Final 5 min
54.0%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 02:52 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:27 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:48 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:46 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:11 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |