Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.3% vs 51.3%). Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 28 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 51.3% vs Aho 51.2% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 40-31 in 71 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 58.5%
Defensive zone
Aho 50.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 51.1%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 53.2%
46.8%
53.2%
Monahan
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
40
(71 meetings)
31
40
Monahan
Aho
Last 10: Monahan 5-5 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
7
21
Monahan
Aho
28 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
11
9
Monahan
Aho
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
13
10
Monahan
Aho
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (11,356)
50.1% (6,619)
+1.0%
Power Play
53.7% (2,580)
58.9% (1,310)
-5.2%
Penalty Kill
46.0% (766)
46.3% (464)
-0.3%
On power play, Aho has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Monahan shoots left. Aho is 51.0% vs left-shot opponents (5,305).
Home / Away
Monahan
Aho
Home
52.4% (7,358)
52.4% (4,308)
Away
50.2% (7,344)
50.1% (4,085)
By Period
Monahan
Aho
P1
50.9%
51.1%
P2
51.7%
52.0%
P3
51.0%
50.7%
OT
53.5%
48.9%
Final 5 min
50.3%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 02:52 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 09:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 04:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:27 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:48 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:46 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:11 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 31, 2024 | OT | 04:47 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | OT | 02:05 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 15:25 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 07:21 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 07:14 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 31, 2024 | 3 | 01:27 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |