Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.9% vs 54.1%). Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 54.5% vs Aho 53.8% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 69.0%
Defensive zone
Monahan 64.0%
Neutral zone
Monahan 51.4%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Monahan
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Monahan
Aho
Last 8: Monahan 4-4 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
0
Monahan
Aho
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Monahan
Aho
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
2
Monahan
Aho
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (871)
51.2% (785)
+5.9%
Power Play
53.1% (262)
63.8% (213)
-10.7%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (139)
57.9% (57)
-13.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +13.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Monahan shoots left. Aho is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Home / Away
Monahan
Aho
Home
55.3% (644)
54.9% (548)
Away
54.5% (628)
53.3% (507)
By Period
Monahan
Aho
P1
53.9%
52.8%
P2
55.3%
58.9%
P3
54.4%
50.6%
OT
76.5%
60.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
54.9%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 09:57 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 08:31 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 3 | 01:36 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 15:33 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 2 | 01:21 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 07:56 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 2, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |