Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Monahan wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 53.1% vs Aho 50.4% (+2.9%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 61.0%
Defensive zone
Monahan 53.7%
Neutral zone
Aho 56.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 58.9%
41.1%
58.9%
Monahan
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Monahan
Aho
Last 10: Monahan 4-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
4
Monahan
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
2
Monahan
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (664)
50.5% (647)
+3.3%
Power Play
53.3% (137)
54.2% (131)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (62)
38.1% (42)
+11.9%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Monahan is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Monahan shoots left. Aho is 47.5% vs left-shot opponents (531).
Home / Away
Monahan
Aho
Home
54.8% (405)
53.9% (445)
Away
52.2% (458)
46.4% (375)
By Period
Monahan
Aho
P1
49.6%
48.7%
P2
53.9%
51.4%
P3
55.2%
50.8%
OT
65.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
54.0%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
53.4%
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:06 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:53 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:27 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 16:48 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:46 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 04:11 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 09:37 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 1 | 04:11 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |