Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.1% vs 52.5%). Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Monahan wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.8% vs Hertl 52.3% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 66.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 66.2%
Neutral zone
Monahan 50.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 56.9%
56.9%
43.1%
Monahan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Monahan
Hertl
Last 10: Monahan 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
2
Monahan
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Monahan
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Monahan
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (641)
51.6% (1,084)
-0.1%
Power Play
62.8% (129)
61.0% (246)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (9)
44.1% (136)
-10.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +10.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Monahan is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (491).
Monahan shoots left. Hertl is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (940).
Home / Away
Monahan
Hertl
Home
53.9% (362)
55.2% (696)
Away
52.5% (417)
50.0% (770)
By Period
Monahan
Hertl
P1
48.0%
55.4%
P2
57.0%
54.8%
P3
54.1%
48.9%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.0%
54.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
52.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 17:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 06:20 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 3 | 09:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 14:27 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 06:22 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 2 | 01:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 1 | 12:35 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 7, 2021 | 1 | 01:37 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 05:30 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |