Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 53.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 52.8% vs Hertl 57.2% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 76.5%
Defensive zone
Monahan 58.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 68.3%
31.7%
68.3%
Monahan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Monahan
Hertl
Last 5: Monahan 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
1
Monahan
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Monahan
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (823)
58.1% (823)
-4.9%
Power Play
55.3% (159)
56.2% (265)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
48.4% (95)
62.9% (35)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Monahan is 53.0% vs left-shot opponents (676).
Monahan shoots left. Hertl is 56.7% vs left-shot opponents (690).
Home / Away
Monahan
Hertl
Home
54.6% (529)
59.7% (561)
Away
51.6% (548)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Monahan
Hertl
P1
49.0%
51.6%
P2
55.4%
63.8%
P3
53.6%
58.6%
OT
61.9%
28.6%
Final 5 min
54.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 15:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |