Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Monahan wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 53.1% vs Hertl 56.6% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.6%
Defensive zone
Monahan 56.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 51.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 64.7%
35.3%
64.7%
Monahan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Monahan
Hertl
Last 5: Monahan 3-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
1
Monahan
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Monahan
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (664)
56.6% (632)
-2.8%
Power Play
53.3% (137)
58.7% (206)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (62)
63.6% (22)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Monahan is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Monahan shoots left. Hertl is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (529).
Home / Away
Monahan
Hertl
Home
54.8% (405)
59.7% (434)
Away
52.2% (458)
54.9% (426)
By Period
Monahan
Hertl
P1
49.6%
51.0%
P2
53.9%
64.0%
P3
55.2%
57.8%
OT
65.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
54.0%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
58.0%▲
53.0%
53.4%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 18:10 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 15:31 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 05:58 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 13, 2025 | 2 | 02:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |