Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.1% vs 54.8%). Monahan wins 56.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 53.9% vs Hertl 54.5% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.3%
Defensive zone
Monahan 55.7%
Neutral zone
Monahan 62.0%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 55.6%
55.6%
44.4%
Monahan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Monahan
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Monahan
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Monahan
Hertl
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Monahan
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (231)
54.1% (1,117)
+0.4%
Power Play
58.2% (67)
59.8% (296)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (23)
34.4% (32)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Monahan is 56.9% vs left-shot opponents (216).
Monahan shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Monahan
Hertl
Home
53.5% (144)
54.3% (709)
Away
56.5% (177)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Monahan
Hertl
P1
52.5%
51.6%
P2
50.9%
53.6%
P3
60.8%
58.6%
OT
100.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
52.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
55.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 02:55 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |