Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Monahan wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Monahan 54.5% vs Hertl 56.8% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 62.9%
Defensive zone
Hertl 63.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 60.7%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 63.2%
36.8%
63.2%
Monahan
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Monahan
Hertl
Last 7: Monahan 5-2 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
3
2
Monahan
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
0
Monahan
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Monahan
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (871)
57.0% (718)
+0.1%
Power Play
53.1% (262)
64.9% (188)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
44.6% (139)
44.2% (77)
+0.4%
On power play, Hertl has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Monahan is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Monahan shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Monahan
Hertl
Home
55.3% (644)
59.2% (463)
Away
54.5% (628)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Monahan
Hertl
P1
53.9%
56.3%
P2
55.3%
55.4%
P3
54.4%
60.5%
OT
76.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.9%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 18:54 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 17:46 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 3 | 15:11 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 17:21 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 11, 2024 | 2 | 01:09 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 3 | 11:49 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 00:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |