Nathan MacKinnon vs Sebastian Aho
2018-19 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). MacKinnon wins 42.2% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 44.2% vs Aho 48.7% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 66.2%
Defensive zone
Aho 61.7%
Neutral zone
Aho 63.9%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 63.6%
36.4%
63.6%
MacKinnon
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
MacKinnon
Aho
Last 6: MacKinnon 4-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
MacKinnon
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
1
MacKinnon
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
42.8% (1,039)
47.4% (953)
-4.6%
Power Play
50.8% (118)
58.0% (174)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (26)
41.6% (77)
+4.6%
On power play, Aho has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. MacKinnon is 42.2% vs left-shot opponents (889).
MacKinnon shoots right. Aho is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (453).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Aho
Home
48.0% (586)
50.2% (609)
Away
39.5% (597)
46.9% (595)
By Period
MacKinnon
Aho
P1
46.1%
48.7%
P2
41.5%
50.2%
P3
43.8%
47.0%
OT
33.3%
41.7%
Final 5 min
47.1%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
43.7%
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2019 | 3 | 14:29 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 3 | 12:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 1 | 13:24 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 1 | 06:58 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 14:09 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 14:06 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |