Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.5% FO% edge overall. Aho wins 56.1% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.4% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-5.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 64.7%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 60.4%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 65.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 62.5%
37.5%
62.5%
Aho
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Aho
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.5% (647)
56.7% (254)
-6.2%
Power Play
54.2% (131)
52.6% (76)
+1.6%
Penalty Kill
38.1% (42)
100.0% (2)
-61.9%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +61.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Aho is 56.1% vs right-shot opponents (289).
Aho shoots left. Stamkos is 58.9% vs left-shot opponents (248).
Home / Away
Aho
Stamkos
Home
53.9% (445)
51.9% (158)
Away
46.4% (375)
59.8% (174)
By Period
Aho
Stamkos
P1
48.7%
56.5%
P2
51.4%
55.0%
P3
50.8%
56.5%
OT
58.8%
62.5%
Final 5 min
49.5%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
54.0%▼
56.5%
50.5%
Stamkos
56.0%▬
56.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 09:56 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |