Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Aho wins 55.5% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.0% vs Stamkos 54.6% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 66.4%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 63.6%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 65.9%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 65.0%
35.0%
65.0%
Aho
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Aho
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (851)
56.1% (342)
-6.2%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
53.3% (92)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (60)
62.5% (8)
-19.2%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Aho shoots left. Stamkos is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (325).
Home / Away
Aho
Stamkos
Home
53.2% (554)
53.4% (208)
Away
46.5% (501)
57.7% (234)
By Period
Aho
Stamkos
P1
49.1%
55.6%
P2
50.8%
52.8%
P3
49.7%
59.1%
OT
58.8%
62.5%
Final 5 min
49.4%
56.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 13:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 6, 2025 | 2 | 09:56 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |