Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Aho wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 53.8% vs Stamkos 55.2% (-1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 63.0%
Defensive zone
Aho 54.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.8%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 58.5%
58.5%
41.5%
Aho
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Aho
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
0
Aho
Stamkos
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
Aho
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (785)
55.9% (499)
-4.7%
Power Play
63.8% (213)
56.3% (126)
+7.5%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (57)
58.3% (12)
-0.4%
On power play, Aho has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Aho shoots left. Stamkos is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (486).
Home / Away
Aho
Stamkos
Home
54.9% (548)
55.3% (349)
Away
53.3% (507)
56.9% (288)
By Period
Aho
Stamkos
P1
52.8%
57.0%
P2
58.9%
59.2%
P3
50.6%
51.5%
OT
60.0%
55.6%
Final 5 min
52.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2023 | 2 | 15:16 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:12 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 14:44 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 24, 2023 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |