Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Aho wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 52.2% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 60.3%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 57.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.5%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Aho
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Aho
Stamkos
Last 8: Aho 6-2 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
5
2
Aho
Stamkos
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (819)
49.3% (789)
+2.3%
Power Play
58.4% (173)
56.9% (181)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (67)
54.1% (98)
-7.8%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Aho is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Aho shoots left. Stamkos is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (798).
Home / Away
Aho
Stamkos
Home
53.9% (568)
52.0% (512)
Away
50.7% (491)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Aho
Stamkos
P1
55.4%
42.1%
P2
51.2%
56.4%
P3
50.9%
53.7%
OT
28.6%
62.5%
Final 5 min
45.2%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.4%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 14:51 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:29 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 3 | 08:21 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 29, 2022 | 1 | 10:16 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 07:31 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 2 | 05:15 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 3 | 07:39 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |