Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Aho wins 53.4% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 54.9% vs Stamkos 49.9% (+5.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 55.3%
Defensive zone
Aho 76.2%
Neutral zone
Aho 65.9%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 65.8%
65.8%
34.2%
Aho
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Aho
Stamkos
Last 5: Aho 4-1 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Stamkos
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Stamkos
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
2
1
Aho
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (870)
49.3% (670)
+5.2%
Power Play
62.4% (266)
53.7% (121)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
37.1% (62)
33.3% (3)
+3.8%
On power play, Aho has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Aho is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (393).
Aho shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Aho
Stamkos
Home
53.9% (603)
54.0% (400)
Away
56.8% (595)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Aho
Stamkos
P1
54.1%
48.6%
P2
55.0%
54.5%
P3
57.4%
45.4%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
55.4%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
55.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 03:29 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:56 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:07 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 05:17 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |