Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +12.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Aho wins 54.3% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 52.2% vs Thompson 41.2% (+12.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 93.7%
Defensive zone
Aho 73.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 89.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 90.7%
90.7%
9.3%
Aho
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Aho
Thompson
Last 7: Aho 6-1 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
6
0
Aho
Thompson
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Aho
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (819)
40.6% (801)
+11.0%
Power Play
58.4% (173)
44.7% (103)
+13.7%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (67)
31.0% (71)
+15.3%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Aho is 54.3% vs right-shot opponents (385).
Aho shoots left. Thompson is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (724).
Home / Away
Aho
Thompson
Home
53.9% (568)
43.2% (507)
Away
50.7% (491)
37.2% (468)
By Period
Aho
Thompson
P1
55.4%
37.7%
P2
51.2%
43.4%
P3
50.9%
39.5%
OT
28.6%
27.3%
Final 5 min
45.2%
39.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
52.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
40.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2022 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 14:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 11:41 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 1 | 00:51 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 11:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 4, 2021 | 3 | 06:02 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |