Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 12 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 51.2% vs Thompson 42.8% (+8.7%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 13-11 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Aho 84.3%
Defensive zone
Aho 56.0%
Neutral zone
Aho 61.6%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 71.1%
71.1%
28.9%
Aho
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
11
(24 meetings)
13
11
Aho
Thompson
Last 10: Aho 4-6 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
10
2
Aho
Thompson
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
7
Aho
Thompson
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Aho
Thompson
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (6,619)
42.9% (3,521)
+7.2%
Power Play
58.9% (1,310)
46.8% (372)
+12.1%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (464)
33.6% (265)
+12.7%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +12.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,088).
Aho shoots left. Thompson is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,011).
Home / Away
Aho
Thompson
Home
52.4% (4,308)
44.9% (2,115)
Away
50.1% (4,085)
40.3% (2,043)
By Period
Aho
Thompson
P1
51.1%
44.5%
P2
52.0%
43.6%
P3
50.7%
40.2%
OT
48.9%
36.4%
Final 5 min
50.4%
41.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
51.3%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 08:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 3 | 14:46 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 01:04 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 1 | 11:05 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:32 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 02:01 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 01:27 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 13:47 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 00:55 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 08:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 06:55 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 08:52 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Apr 7, 2022 | 1 | 07:38 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:40 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 5, 2022 | 2 | 14:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |