Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Aho wins 55.5% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 50.0% vs Thompson 45.3% (+5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 51.5%
Defensive zone
Thompson 64.0%
Neutral zone
Thompson 52.4%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 55.7%
44.3%
55.7%
Aho
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Aho
Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Aho
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Aho
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (851)
44.9% (642)
+5.0%
Power Play
53.5% (144)
47.9% (94)
+5.6%
Penalty Kill
43.3% (60)
33.3% (33)
+10.0%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (364).
Aho shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Aho
Thompson
Home
53.2% (554)
46.0% (391)
Away
46.5% (501)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Aho
Thompson
P1
49.1%
48.1%
P2
50.8%
44.9%
P3
49.7%
41.2%
OT
58.8%
42.9%
Final 5 min
49.4%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
50.0%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 17:31 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 3 | 08:56 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |