Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Aho wins 54.4% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Aho 53.8% vs Thompson 44.0% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 87.7%
Defensive zone
Aho 58.8%
Neutral zone
Aho 76.3%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
Aho
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Aho
Thompson
Last 6: Aho 4-2 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
2
0
Aho
Thompson
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
2
Aho
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
1
0
Aho
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Aho
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.2% (785)
44.6% (709)
+6.6%
Power Play
63.8% (213)
41.5% (53)
+22.3%
Penalty Kill
57.9% (57)
35.1% (97)
+22.8%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +22.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Aho is 54.4% vs right-shot opponents (406).
Aho shoots left. Thompson is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Aho
Thompson
Home
54.9% (548)
45.5% (426)
Away
53.3% (507)
41.1% (433)
By Period
Aho
Thompson
P1
52.8%
48.5%
P2
58.9%
43.8%
P3
50.6%
38.1%
OT
60.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.3%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Aho
42.0%▼
48.0%
54.1%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 01:27 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 01:16 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 13:47 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 00:55 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 19:02 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 2 | 08:06 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |